Earnio results for February 2026

The cryptocurrency market experienced an exceptionally challenging period in February 2026. Although there were signs of a recovery at the beginning of the month, the market continued to grapple with declining liquidity and risk aversion triggered by global tensions. This tension literally escalated—or, if you will, exploded—at the end of the month with the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran.

From its January high of nearly $98,000, Bitcoin fell as low as $60,000 in February, representing a decline of -35% from its January peak. The monthly decline in the price of Bitcoin in February alone reached −15%.

The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies fell even more sharply, recording a decline of −17.5% in February. The S&P Cryptocurrency Top 10 Equal Weight Index recorded a decline of −12.27% during the same period.

Earnio Dynamic – Our strategy achieved a return of -10.3% in February 2026.

In the context of this significant market turbulence and the aforementioned declines across the entire market, this result can be considered relatively controlled. Although we certainly have to admit that last month’s results are not what we would like to see.

Earnio Dynamic’s total decline over the past few months reached the -25% threshold, which we consider a key benchmark in our risk management. In accordance with our internal regulations, this was followed by a thorough review and revision of all strategies. We are now conducting a comprehensive reassessment of the entire portfolio and all active strategies to ensure optimal adaptation to the current market conditions. 

Over the past three years, we have achieved a total return of just under 64.50%. A client who had the most favorable terms with Earnio from the very beginning would thus have achieved an average annual compound return of 5.9%. Recent months have been dragging our performance down.

Our trading activity

During February, our algorithms executed a total of 209 trades, of which 71 were profitable and 138 were losing trades, resulting in a success rate of 33.97%.

The average trade duration was 1 day, 22 hours, and 10 minutes.

The average profit per trade was $1,753, while the average loss was −$1,679. 

The goal is not to “win” every month, but to achieve consistent results over the long term.

Even several months with negative results can be perfectly acceptable from the perspective of the overall strategy, especially if they occur during one of the most challenging market periods of the entire year.

It must be noted, however, that we are currently approaching the risk threshold of our drawdowns, which are set in the simulations to a cumulative loss of -25%. To put it simply, our testing model indicates that trading on Earn may and likely will incur various losses over its history, but a cumulative loss of -25% is already at the edge of that risk model and requires significantly increased attention.

Trades:

The most successful trade of the month took place on the SOLUSDT pair, where the strategy closed with a profit of $9,506.89. The position was opened on February 6, 2026, at 12:20 AM, when SOL was trading at 68.02, and closed on the same day at 2:01 AM at 79.66.

Conversely, the largest loss occurred on the UNIUSDT pair, where the trade was opened on February 11, 2026, at 4:00 PM at 3.824 and closed on February 13, 2026, at 12:00 AM at 3.242, resulting in a loss of −$5,963.24.

As mentioned above, we are currently conducting a thorough review and testing of our strategies.

This structured review process allows us to identify and gradually phase out components that no longer align with the current market environment, while retaining those that continue to demonstrate robust risk-adjusted performance.

Based on this, we have decided to reduce the number of strategies for the time being, as the current market structure does not suit all of them. 

As the chart below shows, although individual algorithms demonstrated resilience and stability for most of the month, they struggled to adapt to a sudden geopolitical shift toward the end of the month.

The strategy that faced the greatest challenges this month was our CGR strategy. The CGR strategy was our first purely mean-reversion strategy. It uses a mathematical oscillator model that calculates the deviation of the price from its mean and is suitable for identifying areas where a price reversal is likely to occur with minimal delay. Essentially, it is a strategy that anticipates a return to the previous average. However, situations involving sudden and significant drops do not serve it well in the long run. And so it was withdrawn. Risk-related adjustments also affected other strategies. 

Algorithmic trading is a long-term game, and drawdowns are a natural part of trading. It is particularly important to focus on long-term results and systematic monitoring.

Earnio Market Summary – February 2026

February kept crypto investors—including myself—on edge, as the post-October correction deepened and was compounded by a dramatic geopolitical escalation at month-end. After reaching a historical high above USD 126,000 in early October 2025, Bitcoin experienced another punishing month, trading in a volatile range that ultimately closed near USD 65,000.

Unlike isolated sell-offs, this decline stemmed from a convergence of catalysts—from persistent spot-market pressure and ETF redemptions to record stablecoin activity and the sudden US-Israel strikes on Iran. In short, February 2026 can be characterized as a month when fear dominated the cryptocurrency markets. Despite the turbulence, it is important to note that this drop—although sharp—was not a collapse of crypto infrastructure like in 2022. Major exchanges and lending platforms remained stable (there was no FTX-like failure), and leading stablecoins maintained their dollar peg even amid heightened volatility.

What we witnessed was more of a controlled deleveraging process rather than a collapse—a cooling-off period following excessive optimism at the start of the year. Institutional and retail investors alike were simply forced to reassess their positions. While Donald Trump is a pro-crypto president, even that does not necessarily mean cryptocurrencies will rise nonstop in the face of broader macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions.

Technical analysis

Bitcoin’s price action in February was clearly bearish, with several technical warning signals appearing throughout the month. After failing to hold above USD 70,000 early in the period, BTC entered a series of sharp sell-offs.

The decline culminated around February 6, when Bitcoin briefly dropped to a seven-month low near USD 60,000 within days of the open. This move erased further gains from 2025 and represented a dramatic reversal from the October peak.

Momentum indicators on the charts definitively turned negative. By the end of February, BTC was consolidating around USD 65,000 in a fragile, stagnating trend, unable to re-establish its previous upward trajectory.

The combination of bearish momentum indicators and the recent geopolitical shock has left traders wary, though some see this as an opportunity for bargain hunting in the near term.

Exchange Flows

On-chain data from February reveals an interesting relationship between short-term traders and long-term holders. In the early phase of the sell-off, many short-term participants moved coins onto exchanges, contributing to increased selling pressure.

However, as prices fell further, the situation reversed: Bitcoin started flowing off exchanges, signalling potential accumulation by more patient investors. This “exchange exodus” is typically a bullish signal. That said, the chart shows that days dominated by exchange inflows have not yet fully disappeared.

This dynamic between inflows and outflows reflects a market in transition, where patient capital is gradually stepping in amid the uncertainty.

ETFs

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) became a double-edged sword for cryptocurrencies in 2026, a dynamic that played out dramatically in February. At the beginning of the year, capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs had been welcomed. In February, however, the same mechanism amplified the downturn early on.

Funds that had previously absorbed supply began selling BTC to meet redemptions, contributing further to market declines. Overall, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately USD 206.6 million in net outflows for the month. Importantly, a sharp reversal occurred in the final week, with roughly USD 1.7 billion in inflows since February 24 as institutions bought the dip. This shift from outflows to inflows in the latter part of the month demonstrates institutional confidence in buying dips despite the geopolitical risks.

Stablecoin activity

For the first time in recent memory, stablecoin trading volume shattered records even as the broader market corrected. Total stablecoin transaction volume reached an unprecedented USD 1.8 trillion in February—setting a new monthly high.

While USDT experienced a modest supply contraction of roughly USD 1.5 billion, daily trading volumes averaged over USD 100 billion and the peg remained extremely tight. Despite these dynamics, stablecoins remained critical liquidity providers throughout the chaos. Major stablecoins maintained their value even at the peak of the sell-off and geopolitical uncertainty. These developments reinforce the view that stablecoins continue to act as the backbone of crypto liquidity, even in the face of major external disruptions.

USA attack on Iran

In the final days of February, the cryptocurrency markets faced their most significant external shock when the United States and Israel launched surprise airstrikes across Iran on February 28. The operation—ordered by President Trump and dubbed Operation Epic Fury—targeted nuclear and military sites, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggering immediate regional escalation.

The strikes sparked a swift risk-off move: Bitcoin and the broader crypto market accelerated lower in the closing hours of the month as investors fled to cash and gold amid fears of wider conflict.

Oil prices spiked and equity markets wobbled, amplifying the deleveraging already underway in crypto. While the full market impact is still unfolding, the event underscored how quickly geopolitical catalysts can override technical and on-chain signals—yet major crypto infrastructure held firm with no systemic failures reported. Investors will be watching closely in the weeks ahead to see how this conflict evolves and its ongoing influence on risk assets like Bitcoin.

Summary

February 2026 will be remembered as a month where macroeconomic pressures and sudden geopolitical events tested the limits of crypto market resilience. Despite the sharp declines and heightened fear, the absence of systemic failures and signs of accumulation on-chain point to a maturing asset class that can weather such storms.

As we move into March, the focus will likely shift toward how the evolving situation in the Middle East influences global risk appetite and whether institutional buyers continue to step in at these discounted levels. With Bitcoin holding key technical supports and stablecoins proving their worth once again, cautious optimism seems warranted for the months ahead.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and may be associated with the risk of capital loss. It is important to consult with an expert and conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Probinex is not responsible for any losses that may arise as a result of investing in cryptocurrencies.