Earnio Market News: Geopolitical shock shakes markets, but Bitcoin quickly found support

The first half of March brought significant volatility to financial markets. Geopolitical tension in the Middle East triggered a short-term sell‑off of risk assets, and Bitcoin slid over the weekend down to the $63,000 level.

However, the panic did not last long. The cryptocurrency market surprised with a rapid recovery, while institutional capital flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs helped stabilize prices above key support levels. Investors are now watching primarily the continued development of the conflict, oil prices, and the question of whether Bitcoin can break through the psychological $70,000 level.

Below you’ll find a brief overview of the most important events recently influencing market development. Don’t miss the latest information on the cryptocurrency market. Subscribe to our newsletter.

Bitcoin defended support around $63,000–$65,000. Short squeeze liquidated $300M of positions

Bitcoin opened March under pressure, dropping to a weekend low of $63,000 amid the sudden escalation in the Middle East.

The Fear & Greed Index plunged into extreme fear territory. Ethereum and Solana followed lower initially, with the total market cap shedding roughly $128 billion at the worst point.

However, the dip proved short-lived. Bitcoin staged a strong recovery, climbing back above $66,000–$69,000 as of March 10–11, while Ethereum and Solana posted 7–11% rebounds in a single session. Simple technical analysis shows BTC successfully defended the critical $63,000–$65,000 support zone (a level that had held multiple times since late February).

Resistance now sits at $70,000–$74,000, with the 50-day moving average acting as dynamic overhead. A clean break above $70k on strong volume would signal the start of a new leg higher.

The broader market cap rose around 4% in the recovery phase, liquidating over $300 million in shorts and highlighting crypto’s growing resilience as a high-beta asset.

US-Iran conflict: oil surges on tensions, crypto shows resilience

Escalating military action (including reports of Supreme Leader Khamenei’s death) sent oil prices soaring — Brent crude briefly touched $119 before settling in the $91–$100 range, with some analysts warning of potential spikes to $120 if the conflict drags on. The Strait of Hormuz disruptions amplified fears of global supply shocks and renewed inflation.

Crypto initially behaved like a classic risk asset, selling off in sympathy with equities. Yet the impact proved more contained than in past crises: Bitcoin recovered far faster than many expected, and no disorderly liquidation cascade occurred.

This resilience is being attributed to maturing institutional participation and the narrative that Bitcoin can act as a hedge in uncertain times. Markets are now watching for any de-escalation signals that could ease oil pressure and boost risk appetite further.

Institutional momentum: Bitcoin ETFs see massive inflows

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs staged a powerful comeback. Over the past week they recorded more than $1 billion in net inflows across several sessions — one of the strongest stretches of the quarter.

BlackRock’s IBIT alone pulled in hundreds of millions on multiple days (including a $263 million single-day haul), while Fidelity and others contributed solidly.

These inflows absorbed the weekend shock and helped stabilize prices well above the $63k low. Analysts note that institutions are treating the dip as a buying opportunity, tightening supply and providing a structural floor.

This marks the end of a five-week outflow streak and reinforces the growing role of ETFs as the primary on-ramp for traditional capital.

Bitcoin reaches historic 20 million supply milestone

On March 9, 2026, the Bitcoin network mined its 20 millionth coin at block height 939,999–940,000, pushing the circulating supply to roughly 95.24% of the protocol’s hard-capped 21 million total.

The milestone was achieved by the Foundry USA mining pool, which collected the standard post-2024 halving reward of 3.125 BTC. It took approximately 17 years and two months since the genesis block in January 2009 to reach this point, while the remaining 1 million BTC will now take more than 114 years to enter circulation under the programmed halving schedule.

This event reinforces Bitcoin’s core scarcity narrative at a time when markets are already digesting geopolitical volatility and strong ETF inflows. With only one coin left for every 20 already mined, the reduced future issuance is expected to provide structural long-term support, even if analysts view the immediate price impact as largely priced in.

The timing coincides neatly with Bitcoin’s swift rebound above $66,000–$69,000, underscoring how the tightening supply backdrop continues to attract institutional capital amid broader macro uncertainty.

Summary

The first two weeks of March proved that crypto can absorb major geopolitical shocks without breaking. Bitcoin defended key supports, oil-driven volatility created a clear buying dip, and institutional ETF flows provided the backbone for the rebound.

Going forward, watch for oil price stabilization (any de-escalation could spark a fresh risk-on move) and continued ETF momentum. If Bitcoin clears $70k convincingly, altcoin rotation could accelerate — but geopolitical headlines remain the wildcard.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and may involve a risk of capital loss. Before making any investment decision, it is important to consult a professional and conduct your own research. Probinex assumes no responsibility for any losses that may arise as a result of investments in cryptocurrencies.